national television? should be a little more simple. dagen: federal reserve chief is out today trying to explain why he is pumping even more money into the economy. connell: the supreme court back to work today. whether your cell phone data is protected under the fourth amendment. judge andrew napolitano coming up. dagen: costing apple billionths. connell: let's start with nicole petallides. nicole: looking pretty good here today. we see the dow is up more than 1%. the s&p up nearly 1%. the text -- tech heavy nasdaq

up. this was after three months of contraction. that was some good news there. another thing helping things along -- the dollar is lower, the euro is higher. you are seeing just about every name in the dow with an up arrow. i want you to take a book here at macy's. they will higher 80,000 for the seasonal. kohls, amazon, toys "r" us, just to name a few. dagen: host chris wallace had a little trouble getting information from vice presidential candidate paul ryan on his tax plan. >> it is lower by 2013. >> how much does it cost? >> it is revenue neutral. [ talking over each other ]

>> we will get to that. >> let me just tell you. it would take me too long to go through all the math. dagen: it would take too long to go through all the math. what does david stockman think of this? he is author of the triumph of politics. great to see you, as always. is that a mistake or the right way to go? >> it is pathetic. this is nixon's secret plan for years later. if they think they can cut tax rates and close these loopholes and expenditures, they have to name them. you have to be honest with the american people. they are being totally dishonest. somehow, they think that people will buy it. dagen: dishonest is a big word. mitt romney has alluded towards meeting to let congress -- this will be a comprehensive tax

reform. >> if you do not tell the american people it darkly where you will get all of this revenue so you can get a tax break to everybody, and you are not preparing the way, not getting a mandate so once you are collected you can actually do something. will they get rid of the health deduction looks like yes or no. will they wipe out the retirement deductions? yes or no. they will not name a single name and i think it is a vindication of how far the republican party has gotten lost. we cannot afford any tax cuts. we have to deal with our deficit. that will mean spending cuts for everybody. dagen: is it a mistake to run on this at all?

how can you focus been on, because the issue is growth and jobs. how do you run and talk about that without linking tax policy to it somehow? the opposite would be saying we will get rid of these deductions. some people taxes will go up. that will not win you to white house, will it? >> both parties have been -- we cannot afford to give anybody anything anymore. we are broke. we are running a trillion dollars deficit. once we start paying a real normal interest rate on that 20 trillion, it will send the budget even deeper.

dagen: all of what you are saying makes perfect sense. i have argued for years that the american people will not vote to pick that until they feel it is home. runaway inflation like the 1970s and skyhigh interest rates like people saw 30 some odd years ago. that is not the case today. if it was laid out just like that, do you think they would vote based on that? >> i think they will not have a choice. when the crisis comes we will not have a choice to say let's wait a couple years until things get better. we will have to face the music like most of europe is today. the only reason we are not being forced to make a choice is the federal reserve. david bernanke. all of these lunatics who have driven the interest rate down to zero and telling congress and presidential candidates to not worry about the deficit because

you can finance another trillion dollars for free. i know that 70 basis points is a rounding error. to them, it is free money. if romney really wanted to attack the problems of this country, he was a solvency is our number one problem and we will go after this budget and get it under control. number two, the economy and capitalism is being ruined by the fed and i will clean house and they want, job one, bernanke goes. he needs to say that. dagen: if there is always the debate. thank you very much, david. connell: bernanke. let's talk a little bit about him right now. dagen: bring it. connell: he will be there at the indiana economic club today making his first remarks in

public. dagen: rich edson is standing by with more. >> a very fine city. bernanke speaks about an hour and a half from right now. five questions about the federal reserve and monetary policy and, boy, have there been changes to monetary policy. there is already signs that qe3 is working. however, also, to peter barnes, this man disagreed. >> to compare the effects of a kiwi action in 08 and 09 with what happened today would in fact markets are not dysfunctional, you cannot apply the findings from qe1 and think we will get the same effects.

i think the environment is different. you cannot take all that evidence and a flight it. >> we will have the fed chairman remarks live on fox business at 12:30 p.m. there will be plenty of questions on inflation, economic conditions, when the fed starts pulling back on monetary policy, still many questions regarding qe3. connell: rich, thank you very much. all that uncertainty that surrounds our economy could be what leads us back into recession. brian was perry joins us now. he has been optimistic about the economy.

>> i did not disagree with one word he just said to dagen and fewer viewers. he is absolutely right. the government is too big. we have all of these taxes to worry about if we do not cut spending. it has become the biggest financial institution in the world and that is why we are more worried today about uncertainty and what has happened is the risk reward ratio has changed for business. there is more risk and potentially a lot less rewards. businesses are holding back and that increases the odds of recession. the three what todd would you put on recession given the fact, again, this morning we are optimistic -- maybe not, maybe

things are looking pretty good. what odds do you put on recession? >> when we had our soul patch, we did not change our hearts. we stayed at 10%. that is 10%. this year as we have had this slow patch, especially a big drop in production, big drop in durable good orders, machinery orders are down 10% from a year ago, these numbers concern us. even though the economy is growing, companies are holding back. they are holding cash. they are not making new orders. that worries us.

that may seem low to people. northwestern r5 and zero. the whole point we are getting to is today uncertainty is more prevalent than it has been since the 1930s. connell: were you surprised about the manufacturing data today? >> absolutely. it continues to roll along. i am not changing my stock allocation. i still think stocks are cheap for the long run. the economy will get to this. the odds, the chances of having a recession are clearly up to where they were six-eight months ago. connell: thank you, ryan. >> thank you. dagen: apples big mapping screwup with the new iphone and the loss it has suffered.

tens of billions of dollars. connell: unbelievable. for all you parents out there, a shortage is coming. it could be painful. disposable diaper shortage. [laughter] we will first look at the oil market today. 92.64. up $0.45. we will be right back. ♪

♪ dagen: quarter past the hour. stocks how and every 15 minutes. nicole: we are looking pretty good here. we see that thou moving higher. it showed strength. we have seen that thou moving to the upside. oil service, old, they are all with up arrows. numbers came in showing expansion. ending three months of contraction. that is one of the many reasons we get a little pop today. wendy's lowering its expectations.

it made a point going forward that the latest numbers that came in were a bit soft. you are saying it down significantly. down 4% today. they are lowering their estimate outlooks. back to you. connell: some other headlines. the apology that came in from apples tim cook. it seemed to be a day late. $30 billion short, give or take. the stock is down nearly 4.5%. cook said that apple is doing everything it can to make maps better. the stock today is up by a descent amount. dagen: would steve jobs have apologized for what he had not have messed them up in the first place? connell: men are from mars and women from venus and dagen from pluto. male economists put more emphasis on the rules of

business. that is based on a study from the university of nebraska. the global diaper supply could be at risk following an explosion saturday at a japanese plant. it makes an ingredient in disposable diapers. kimberly-clark is up to date with the rest of the market. dagen: i don't think me commenting on anything related to diapers is a good idea. connell: exactly. dagen: move on to the next keys. the fact that on the first monday in october. one of the cases you need to hear about, protecting their information on your phone from the government. the judge is here. connell: all right. president obama for mitt romney.

some new data out. most people have made up their minds. 15% could be convinced to choose somebody else. that seems kind of hype. first, here are some currencies. look how they are shaping up against the dollar today. ♪ follow the wings.

♪ >> @23 minutes past the hour i have good news minute. at least 14 people are dead after a bombing attack in afghanistan. thirty-seven for her to the attack. a new report finds dozens of weapons connected to the bathroom. and it gone rubbing fetish they were linked to murders, kidnappings and other drug cartels. your seafood may be shrinking over the next few decades. researchers at the university of british columbia faced global warming will reduce the size of 600 species of fish.

warmer oceans will reduce the amount of oxygen in the water. those are your news headlines on the fox business network. dagen: thank you so much. the supreme court is back in session. first on the agenda, a human right case revolving around a ball around 1789. connell: peter barnes covered that. >> argument ending for this first case. the court must determine whether corporations may be held liable for international human right violations under the billion tort statute of 1789. one of the first laws passed by the first congress back then. whether the defendant may be liable under those violations. a territory of a foreign

sovereign. this is very important human right case that will determine whether or not victims of human right abuses can sue corporations in the united states for violations of the billion tort statute of 1789. the question -- it is no question if an billion, like an ambassador gets assaulted by an american citizen, this statute would apply. now justices are being asked if it should be much more expensive and evolving human right cases and foreign companies where there is no particular u.s. nexus. the justice has sounded skeptical of broadening this law, the application of this loss in these kind of cases. connell: peter barnes, thank you very much. dagen: you want even more on the supreme court. we have judge andrew napolitano

talking with us about protecting the information on your cell phone. connell: that is coming up a little bit later on in the hour. one of the big name banks got a big write up over the weekend. we will tell you more about that coming up next. we are all up today. here are some more winners on today's s&p 500. ♪

dagen: voters are stubborn.

85% of you say you have your candidate and are not changing your mind. what are president obama and romney doing to win over the other 15%? here's that bank that connell was talking about, goldman sachs getting a big write-up from barron's over the weekend. we will tell you why. and your pictures, your text messages even your whereabouts, is this private information fair game for the federal government? connell: breaking news that's just come in from federal reserve board announcing a 9 million dollars civil penalty that is against american express travel related services, deceptive marketing they say, debt collection practices and compliance risk management all cited. again, 9 million dollars penalty against american express. that just came in as breaking news. at the bottom of the hour, let's go back to nicole at the new york stock exchange. american express will be her subject also and see how the stock is doing. nicole: that's right. standing right here at the american express post here on the floor of the new york stock

exchange. you can see american express is up about 2 1/2%. the high of the day today was actually 58.39. coming off the high just a little bit. the truth is not too much reaction at this point. as i noted, it's come off of the high of the day. also trading on some heavier volume as well. this dow component will be one to watch. we will be following it of course throughout the day today. i wanted to take a look at nokia. right here is also where nokia trades which is up 5 1/4%. oracle also higher today, and this is on a deal that nokia is expected to announce. we will get more details, but we heard from the "wall street journal" yesterday that they are now working with oracle and now oracle will have some maps and some of that. now, nokia has been working hard on maps with other companies such as groupon and amazon, and all of this is to compete with apple as it has the maps.

so this is why nokia is powering forward with maps. back to you. dagen: thanks. breaking news europe's markets are just closing. ashley webster is here with the details on people with long names. ashley: buy them a vowel. dagen: every day. ashley: first day of the quarter begins with a nice bounce on the european markets. could have been helped by the ism number here in the u.s. i think it is the ryder cup bounce. sorry. dagen: hurt me. hurt me. ashley: you know what? ftse up about 1 1/2%. the cac up 2 1/2%. the dax up 1 1/2%. that's the last i'm going to say about the ryder cup. greece's brutal recession will stretch into a sixth year next year when the economy will contract by about another 3.8%. this according to a budget submitted to the greek parliament today. the spending plan calls for package of spending cuts, tax hikes for 2013, 14. hopefully it is enough for the

creditors. unemployment remained record high 11.4% in august. 18.2 million people currently out of work in the euro zone. greece and spain have the highest unemployment rate spread around 25% for both. file this one under the strange but true headline. which two equity markets in the euro zone performed the best in the third quarter? no prizes for guessing germany as one of them. but you will never guess the second one. that's right. greece. big part of the reason is that ecb will buy bonds and keep buying them. dagen: one more thing. give you one more shot. two words, revolutionary war. ashley: you are digging deep, aren't you? dagen: i have nowhere to go. i have to go back centuries.

thank you. connell: voters in this new poll say they are absolutely certain they are going to vote for romney. there are 15% in a rasmussen poll that are still uncommitted. bob bennett a former republican senator from utah and byron dorgan democratic senator from north dakota is also joining us. senator dorgan, that seems like a high number. what do you make of this ahead of wednesday night's debate? >> well most polls have are you certain and then also are you leaning? this doesn't have one of those categories. you know, this is kind of like a scavenger hunt for good polling news. it is entertaining, but it doesn't matter very much. what really matters is what do the polls show how independents feel in ohio, pennsylvania, florida, wisconsin and so on? so, you know, this is a close race. i think president obama is leading in the key swing states. and this debate is going to be very interesting, viewed by a lot of americans.

so i think both candidates are going intoothis thinking they really have to do well. connell: senator dorgan is right senator bennett in that the president has been leading in the polls. take nbc "wall street journal" as an example in those swing states he is up granted in the margin of error in some of them but up in all nine in what they consider to be swing states. had this conservative argument over the last week or so that some of the polls are purposely skewed. chris christie said over the weekend he doesn't buy that. do you? >> no, i don't think they are purposely skewed. i think there's a possibility that they are because the one thing that you never know and the pollsters always trying to guess is who is going to vote. and you can draw a sample, and if your sample includes people who have an opinion, but don't vote, why, then it ends up and they say well the pollster did it deliberately. i don't think anybody is doing anything deliberate, but i do think the one number that should concern the obama forces is the fact that he is -- if rasmussen

is correct, that far below 50% because historically the undecideds in the last weeks, indeed sometimes it's the last few days of an election, the undecided us usually shift against the incumbent simply because the incumbent is the one they know the most about, and therefore the incumbent is the one that has the edge in having people make up their minds one way or the other. i know in my own first race, i was well behind my opponent who was at 48%. in the last ten days, i said, look, after all the money he's spent if he's only at 48%, that means 52% of people want somebody else, and it turned out i won. he got 48 1/2. connell: president is 48 in the rasmussen overall, he's up 2. and also up in the gallup tracking poll. >> i would say i think romney has had a rough few weeks here and i think it is pretty clear that the polls are moving in the direction of the president in

ohio and florida, pennsylvania, and so on, iowa. but this is not -- this race is not over. i don't think the president's campaign would believe it is over either. but i think that this has been a pretty tough few weeks for the romney campaign. they've made a fair number of mistakes. and at this point, you'd have to believe that this president is doing quite well. connell: give me a headline then from your point of view senator bennett that you think we might see on thursday morning after the wednesday night debate. senator bennett? maybe we lost him. we'll give it to senator dorgan. give us the headline you think you will see on thursday morning. >> you know, i don't have the foggiest idea. i'm a democrat so i hope the headline is obama wins debate, but, you know, it is going to be a really interesting debate. and it's important for the american people to see both candidates side by side. i think this president, he's a friend of mine, of course, but i think he's got a good story to

tell, and this country is beginning to see some very significant progress. connell: i can say there's no media bias this putting senator bennett's microphone out of work or anything like that. senators, thanks to both of you. we appreciate it. >> thanks a lot. dagen: you cannot miss the fox business coverage for the debate this coming wednesday. mr. cavuto, neil, that is, live starting at 8:00 p.m. wednesday to bring you everything you need to know before and after the candidates go head-to-head, and we do love neil. and take a look at the cover of barron's magazine. our sister publication saying it is time to buy goldman sachs. our friend mike santoli writing that goldman shares could rise at least 25% in the next year. he says wall street's largest pure investment bank and institutional broker is financially sturdier and less burdened by competition than it was five years ago. take a look at shares of goldman sachs today. you can see how they have done in the last year. but how much are they up today?

4%? connell: yeah, 4.35, the santoli bounce we'll call it. the judge is coming up and he will be talking about the data on your cell phone and whether the government has a right to view it. dagen: you may not be rushed from a hospital like so many have been in the past. a new medicare tax is behind the delays that you might see. first take a look at treasuries. yep. yield 1.64%. everyone has goals.

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that's smarter power today. >> hi everyone. i have your fox business brief. u.s. builders trimmed their activity for a second straight month in august. construction spending slipped 7/10 of 1% to seasonally adjusted 837 billion dollars. meanwhile, healthcare shares are getting a boost after the company announced a series of new financial initiatives. it approves plans for 500 million dollars stock repurchase and 1 for 4 reverse stock split. it also issued 800 million dollars worth of new debt. also expects to put 400 million dollars toward new acquisitions. and honda's expanding its north america recalls include more than 600,000 accord mid size sedans. the recall aims to address potential power steering fluid leaks can cause fire under the hood.

affects 03 to 07 model years. that's the latest on fox business give you the power to prosper. copd includes chronic bronchitis and emphysema. spiriva helps control my copd symptoms by keeping my airways open for 24 hours. plus, it reduces copd flare-ups. spiriva is the only once-daily inhaled copd maintenance treatment that does both. spiriva handihaler tiotropium bromide inhalation powder does not replace fast-acting inhalers for sudden symptoms. tell your doctor if you have kidney problems, glaucoma, trouble urinating, or an enlarged prostate. these may worsen with spiriva. discuss all medicines you take, even eye drops. stop taking spiriva and seek immediate medical help if your breathing suddenly worsens, your throat or tongue swells, you get hives, vision changes or eye pain, or problems passing urine. other side effects include dry mouth and constipation. nothing can reverse copd spiriva helps me breathe better.

(blowing sou) ask your doctor about spiriva. connell: we have been waiting to talk about this one, the data on the cell phone the source of new debate that's going before the federal appeals court. dagen: this is a case in front of the u.s. court of appeals in new orleans over whether police should be allowed to track you over your phone without a warrant for that information. but so much more is at stake regarding your personal information and your phone carriers. nobody better to talk about this hot topic, always hot judge andrew napolitano. connell: wow. [laughter] >> the topic for i. this is my cell phone. i have it turned off. however, it can still tell the police with a warrant or if they want to break the law without a warrant where it is, and it can also be used by the police with

a warrant or if they want to break the law without a warrant to listen to conversations within earshot of the cell phone. the only way to disable it is to take the battery out. this case involves large scale acquisition of information from telecoms about where cell phone users are at a given time. and a telecom that does business in texas, but it's not named in the papers, basically said the federal government, no, we're not going to give you this information without a search warrant. the federal government in its argument before the courts and against this telecom has come up with some new theory of the 4th amendment that one has ever heard of in 230 years and that is if some third party has your records, here the telecom has the records of where you are and to whom you are speaking, you don't have a privacy interest in them. therefore the feds can get it without a search warrant and therefore the 4th amendment doesn't apply. we will see what the court says. this will be a radical change in

the law if the court adopts the government's argument. connell: far be it for me to read between the lines, but it doesn't sound like you think the government has much of an argument here. >> no the 4th amendment was written to protect us from fishing expeditions really. if the government believes that possessor of cell phone is engaged in criminal activity it's pretty easy to get the search warrant. but there has to be that threshold. the constitution calls it probable cause, enough evidence that a neutral person looking at this and say yeah this will probably lead to more evidence of criminal behavior. i will give you the search warrant. they just want your cell phones because they want them? they just want to know where they are because they are interested in you without a probable cause? that the 4th amendment was written to protect us against. dagen: you think that's the way it will go? >> the trial judge in texas told the feds to get a search warrant. and by the way i won't give you one because you haven't given me any reason for one. and the justice department is appealing to the 5th circuit

court of appeals in new orleans. my prediction is that the fifth circuit will affirm what the trial judge did and the justice department will decide whether or not it wants to take this to the supreme court. there was a similar one to the court last year and it lost. dagen: the government is just trying to fight against crime. >> their job is to preserve freedom young lady and you know it. [laughter] dagen: thanks for calling me young lady. connell: our stage manager takes his battery out of his phone every day when he leaves. [laughter] dagen: isn't he one of the most unique characters you know? connell: speaking of unique, let's go to nicole petallides. nicole: i like it, battery out of the phones, dagen, young lady, i like it, beautiful. let's talk about what's going on here. goldman sachs, ibm netflix and also kraft.

four names that we're following very closely. also happen to be some big winners. goldman sachs over in barron's over the weekend it was talking about the fact that goldman sachs has really come under scrutiny during the financial crisis and such, but really the growth potential is pretty good in that their capital they have and their outlook as the business is improving looks really good so upside potential of at least 25% in the next year. ibm that's a winner, upgraded at deutsche bank. netflix they will have the new just for kids now available on the ipad. kraft foods now on the s&p new high. back to you. connell: thanks nicole. dagen: as a new month begins, can stocks keep the momentum going? connell: that's right. it is october 1st. sandra smith at the cme in chicago with the trade today. hey sandra. sandra: hey, dagen and connell. actually here's a full screen we made that gives you the big picture as far as asset performance for the month of september global equities were very strong, up 3.2%.

outperforming commodities which fell over a percent. the dollar fell 1.6%. and the equities even outperformed the bond market, which rose just 3/10 of 1%. i've got a trader here, he has real skin in the game. also looking at a chart, that shows we are seeing the longest winning streak since 07. everybody wants to know should you continue to put your money in stocks the rest of the year? >> i would be a bit careful but by the same token i'm not going to short the equity markets. you don't want to fight the tape. isn't this kind of an exact opposite of what -- so when the u.s. sneezes, the world catches cold. well right now our equity market has been strong so you are seeing global equity markets follow along suit. sandra: that's a great point to make because what's led that rally is emerging markets. is there anywhere you would avoid heading into the last quarter of the year? >> china, one of the single biggest financial follies that you have ever seen is china and

that will actually spill over into australia. i know a lot of people have got money tied up on the australian dollar, australian stock market, things like that. if china has a stumble at all, which i believe they will, i believe that market -- the chinese market is built kind of -- i don't know -- built on a cloud shall we say and i just don't believe the big strong story you are seeing there, and if china falters a little bit, australia is going to have real big problems. sandra: great advice from trey. everybody is wondering in the last quarter of the year, dagee and connell, with equities so strong, do you stay with it or get out now? oil prices down 6% so far this year. we'll be talking to traders all day long about this very topic. back to you. connell: sandra smith from the cme in chicago. dagen: the president's healthcare now ready to penalize hospitals for letting patients out too early. connell: we will get to that but first on the market rally day. let's get to some winners over at the nasdaq.

connell: back on markets now to talk a little healthcare. first a few quick sports headlines for you. the eagles last night, put the victory up on sunday night football, michael vick touchdown

to jackson gave the eagles lead at end of first half. little help in half number two from eli manning, intercepted in the end zone. but in the end the giants still had a chance to win. their kicker had what would have been a career high field goal 54 yards. he didn't make it. so the eagles won. now golf you know that europe had the big comeback to beat the u.s. in the ryder cup but a funny story involving rory mcilroy playing there at the ryder cup. he somehow didn't figure out or remember he was on central time, not eastern. he almost missed his tee off. got a phone call 25 minutes before he was set to tee off, managed to make it barely in time, like ten minutes before he was supposed to tee off. hardly warmed up. of course he won. still even with that rory mcilroy, pretty good job. where's rory? dagen: you don't have to be a genius to hit a golf ball, apparently. connell: as long as you are there. dagen: that's right.

new fallout for hospital companies in the wake of president obama's healthcare law. connell: adam shapiro has more on this. adam: talking about the hospital readmission reduction program part of the patient protection affordable healthcare act starting today hospitals which have a readmission rate for patients who have had heart attacks heart failure or pneumonia if that readmission rate is higher than the national average than those hospitals will be fined in fiscal year 13, 1%, 14, 2%, up to 3% in 2015. the fine is withholding of medicare reimbursements. the hospital association is worried that part of this is going to be misleading because some patients elderly patients don't understand their discharge orders or fail to see a primary care doctor and that explains some of the readmission rates, but the centers for medical -- medicare and medicaid services says this will save u.s. taxpayers just this year roughly 270 million dollars.

and the cbo said that it would save taxpayers 7.1 billion dollars by 2019. it is going to force hospitals to make those discharge orders, connell and dagen, a lot easier to understand. but again, this only applies to readmission for heart attack, heart failure, and pneumonia at this point. dagen: thank you very much for that, adam. connell: a scary warning from of all people ross perot is out. he says fix the fiscal cliff or risk losing the country. dagen: do you want to do the accent? connell: no not at all. dagen: and some things just not kosher with those reports of a coming bacon shortage. we will have more on perot's warning.

connell: here we are markets now and right now the markets are doing pretty well. we are up 140 on the dow. very well actually. dagen: keep it going. tracy byrnes, my girl.

she's here. dennis is here too. tracy? tracy: i'm tracy byrnes. >>i'm dennis neal. fix the cliff or risk losing our country. billionaire ross perot issuing that dire warning. we're going to fact check it. tracy: in defense of the fed's latest easing, ben bernanke making his case, our rich edson is standing by live with bernanke in indianapolis. >> and we are blowing the lid off what a producer here is calling a pork-alypse. why last week's warning of a global bacon shortage is now being called hogwash. tracy: it was scary at the moment. now let's go to nicole petallides at the new york stock

exchange. we have quite a rally. nicole: so far so good. the bulls out on wall street say hey i will take it. the dow jones industrials are up more than 1%. we have seen all the dow components 29 of the 30 in the green with the exception of microsoft. cisco hovering around the unchanged line. for the most part all have up arrows. less worries about europe, certainly one thing we have noticed. also the ism number coming in and that showed expansion rather than three months of contraction for u.s. manufacturing. so that was good news there. let's take a look here at goldman sachs. when you are looking at goldman sachs, it is interesting because in barron's over the weekend, we call this one the barron's bounce; right? well, barron's saying the stock could rise at least 25% within the year and that is because over the next year as capital markets improve, goldman sachs certainly stands to be a great beneficiary of that, and really they have been beaten down and maybe too much during this financial crisis and afterwards. so positive comments and the stock is up 4%.

back to you. >> thank you nicole. we will see you in 15 minutes with more up stocks today. ross perot telling usa today and cspan that if the u.s. goes over a fiscal cliff, we are putting ourselves at risk for a takeover by another country. our next guest is from point view wealth management. he's joining us now. you don't think the fiscal cliff situation is quite that severe? >> we're not changing our strategy because of that. i will tell you what, just the fact on every single news show, every single newspaper we're talking about the fiscal cliff suggests this is very well discounted in the markets. markets prefer known unknowns much more than unknown unknowns. i think that's one reason this is already discounted. the fact of the matter is this is something within the control of the lawmakers. i would much rather deal with this than asteroid coming in from outer space, a nuclear meltdown, if it is really going to get bad, the lawmakers will do what they always do, kick that can down the road.

>> i hate the whole risk of the nuclear meltdown thing, that could be a real bummer. we keep talking about the loss decade in stocks, but tell us in the past ten years stocks are how much -- their returns annual average? >> 8%. 8%. who would have thought. just a couple years ago people talked about having made no money in the stock market. fast forward after this superlative rally. what's even more remarkable for those market timers out there, you have that 8% per year when you saw the iraq war, just turn to the sports pages, you held on right through the sub prime meltdown, the worse recession since the 1930s, you hung right in there, you got -- $1 became $1.87 if you just turned the other cheek and stayed the course. >> if you could calm down and not panic. september, we have the dow up 346 points.

the third quarter, the dow up. now you are going to be a buzz kill and tell us to brace for correction. >> well, look, i think a pause is definitely in the cards. we're up 30% year over year. we've had 15% just since june 1. we can't keep going up at that pace. and of course the parade of horribles as we have discussed, the fiscal cliff, but you also an unresolved situation in europe. no one really knows what's going on in china, but exports are slowing. we all know we wouldn't have qe 3 if this u.s. economy was honky-dory. there are a lot of concerns out there so therefore i think investors should brace themselves for a bit of a pause. >> given what you told us, 8% annual average return in stocks the past ten years. if i have stocks outside in a regular account, not in retirement, i shouldn't be selling because of that correction i should weather through and wait for them to go back up; right? i shouldn't go out? >> if your horizon is longer term, there's a lot of reason to stay the course. one, if not stocks, then what?

money market yields have never been lower. corporate bond rates have never been lower. junk bonds have never been lower. there's not very many good options. with the interest rates seem to be poised to stay low for a long time, i think stocks look pretty good. >> thank you for being with us. you weren't that much of a buzz kill. it is three days to go until the first -- excuse me -- thh first presidential debate. be sure to stay with fox business for all that coverage. neil cavuto is live starting at 8:00 p.m. eastern this wednesday to bring you everything you need to know before and after the candidates go at it. tracy? tracy: all right, i'm sure this is something they will be talking about. there are warnings that the u.s. economy may already be back in a recession. elizabeth macdonald is joining us with the bottom line. what are they saying? we get this ism number today that was much better than anyone expected? >> yeah, that was a pretty good number. it bounced off a three-year low,

and that was after, you know, ending three months worth of contraction in the ism index according to our senior editor. let's take a look at some analysts are saying. one analyst is saying the u.s. recession is already in progress. he's also noting that the u.s. economy most likely entered a recession in the middle of the year. now, let's turn to the federal reserve. what the federal reserve is hearing from businesses in certain regional districts across the country, you are going to see here that the federal reserve is getting negative information from businesses in chicago, dallas, kansas city, new york, philadelphia, richmond, all in negative territory for the third straight month. we're seeing the average orders index for businesses negative for the fourth straight month. we know that the employment index is at its lowest since the summer 09. but here's the deal, the umpire, the referee, the panel that gets to call whether or not the u.s. economy is in a recession, it is called the national and bureau of economic research, historically since 1970, we tend to hear about 9 to 12 months

after the fact that the u.s. economy is in recession. for example, two examples here, 1970, downturn, waited 8 months to call ate recession. -- to call it a recession. just the the most recent one ended in june 09, they called that in september 2010. back to you guys. tracy: let me ask you something, at the end of the day, does it matter what it is if people are feeling -- things are tight at home, i've got to pay high gas prices, food prices are up, it's really all about who is going to take advantage of this during the debates, isn't it? >> yeah, it matters to d.c. policy tracy. and again the nber doesn't use the, you know, the rule of thumb two consecutive quarters. they look at a broad range of economic data. they look at significant economic activity, and that includes whether or not it the downturn is lasting more than a few months look at gdp and productivity. we're not going to hear until months down the road whether or

not we in fact double dipped. back to you guys. tracy: thank you very much. they're certainly going to use that in the debates. that apology on friday from apple's ceo tim cook with the map blunder seemed to be a day late and about 30 billion dollars short. since the release of the iphone 5, apple shares have fallen nearly 4 1/2%. which is equal to about 30 billion dollars of the company's market cap. cook said last week that the company is doing everything it can to make maps better. apple shares right now today in up market are up barely --less than 1%, 5 bucks after three or four down days. tracy? tracy: i have used it. have you used it? >> i refuse. i'm not upgrading my phone. i'm keeping google. tracy: it's not that bad. it talks to you. i used it. i got home. >> millions of users can't be wrong. tracy: i guess. a story that's tough for many of

us to absorb. why diapers may soon be in short supply. >> and jeff flock ahead with what's cooking in illinois. jeff: i have a stock tip for you dennis. i'm here at a corporation, you are looking at something going into an oven that you remember the jetsons? it says wow on it. there's a reason for that. stock tip to follow. when we come back, we will talk to the president of this company about a new revolution in cooking. stay tuned. tracy: middleby has

name as the main supplier of pizza ovens for big names like papa john's domino's and pizza hut. the company is branching out beyond pizza. jeff flock has more. jeff: we have something cooking this morning, middle beast is a company you probably haven't heard of but all of the big pizza companies, you know, the papa johns, the godfathers, all those guys, they make the ovens for those people. that's a classic company we like to talk to. the group president is joining us now. you have something that you revolutionized back in your day,

the whole pizza oven thing. >> that was about 25 years ago and revolutionized the pizza business worldwide. jeff: take a look at your stock as well as the stock of the pizza companies out there. they have all flourished in this time. you are trying to take that and do the same thing for casual dining experience. what am i looking at it right here? what does it do? >> looking at our latest technology, for the casual dining operator, and it's the same concept as the pizza business. jeff: stick the food this one end -- stick the food in one end, instead of thinking about how restaurants operating, a guy having to flip it over and everything, you don't have to do that anymore. this is like the jetsons. can you pull that out? i know we put it in earlier. >> it just came out. it looked like it came off a chargrill. it has the grill marks.

jeff: you put this in the tray, and can i do it? i will play cook here for a second. i'm a line cook. put it on. and this is starting to gain traction among the -- give me some companies that are interested. >> well everyone in the casual dining segment is now looking at this concept. because it's automatic. it delivers the food to the table 40% faster. jeff: got you. middleby is the company, mdd, the ticker symbol and you know what? they make all these ovens right here in america, in fact right here in elgin illinois. tracy: i need one for home. i don't have to cook at all. goes through the conveyer belt. jeff: a home oven, bingo. >> sounds like a i love lucy sketch waiting to happen with that thing going through. 15 past the hour, stocks now every 15 minutes and nicole, are you watching 3m deal? nicole: that's right. keeping a close eye on dow component 3m. this is a deal in the ceramic

industry. 3m says it will require a ceramic component maker. the deal is about 847 million dollars. and the offer for $35 a share. that actually is at 43% premium to last friday's close. and look, ceradyne is up 43%, go figure. we're hitting it right on the head this. you can see the two both have up arrows and also 3m is up nearly 2% on the day. i wanted to take a look also at the dow jones industrials. what a great day. we're not too far off of our earlier highs. still up about 148 points right now where you have just about every dow component with the exception of microsoft, cisco -- but most of the names do have up arrows, names like hewlett-packard, bank of america are some of the names that have been leading the way. but up arrows across the board, sector to sector. back to you. tracy: thanks nicole. all right, this is scary stuff. there could be a run on huggies and pampers, yes the global diaper supply might be at risk

following an explosion saturday at a japanese chemical plant that actually makes the key absorbant ingredient in disposable diapers. the plant is responsible for 20% of the world's production. shares of procter & gamble are up slightly. kimberly clark is up slightly as well. as a woman who changed diapers for approximately five years, this is scary. >> i think it is unfortunate the script used the word to run there. i also want to say that any shortage like this would be filled instantly by other suppliers elsewhere. don't believe it for a minute. okay. forecast of much lower gas prices by election day. will president obama take the credit? tracy: and why time almost wasn't on the side of champion golfer rory mcilroy. that was ugly. male announcer ] what if you had thermal night-vision goggles,

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>> at 21 minutes past the hour i'm lauren green with your fox news minute. three u.s. troops were among those killed in a bombing attack

in afghanistan today. at least 11 others were also killed. the taliban claimed responsibility for the blast which came a day after the u.s. death toll in afghanistan reached 2000. the supreme court has refused to consider an appeal by a unit of bank of america on a ruling that allowed brokers who accused it of bias to have a lawsuit. and rory mcilroy thought his tee time was 12:45 eastern time unfortunately he was in illinois where it was central time. he would have been an hour late. a police escort got him to the ryder cup just 11 minutes before tee time. that's your fox news minute. i'm lauren green. back to you tracy, wow, nick of time. tracy: thank you, lauren.

well, gas prices have been levelling off but our next guest says they could actually fall much further in the next five weeks between now and the election. chief oil analyst is joining us from las vegas, where i know you are giving a speech. we will talk about that in a second. but you know what? people from the northeast, myself included, and the west coast have actually seen prices go up. how come, tom? >> well, you know, we've been having trouble running the refineries on the west coast. but on the east coast, we're still sort of going through the things that was created when hurricane isaac came through. i think those problems will clear up in both cases, but unfortunately, out in the west, their summer specs for gasoline goes through halloween.

tracy: tom, you got this autumn slide coming, has it been coming, or is it just coming to the middle part of the country? >> no it is going to come. it will happen. it will happen because right now the price of gasoline -- we're starting the fourth quarter here. the third quarter was most profitable quarter for refiners in probably the 21st century and maybe 20th. those margins are going to come down. if crude kind of channels where it's at now, in the 90s for wti and about 110, 115 for brent, gasoline prices have to come down. november is not a good driving month either. the problem i think will be neither candidate is going to get too much political clout out of what's going to happen over the next four or five weeks but whoever gets elected they will be able to take credit for

prices dropping on the notice of their election probably. tracy: right, which is everyone should read right through that and know it is not true. let's talk about why you are in vegas. you are giving a speech called pop goes the diesel. you are thinking diesel prices are going through the roof, huh? >> yeah, i do. i always thought that the numbers of 4.50 and 5 and 5.50 were nonsense on gas but i don't think they are nonsense on diesel. diesel stocks are low throughout the world. it is the molecule in the petroleum that has seen 50% of all the growth internationally since 2000. and so -- and, you know to a certain extent you don't get the public outcry when prices go higher unless you are in fleet. i think we are see high diesel prices and jet fuel prices that probably means they will try to save money on fares and pack some more people in and i think that's where we're going to see the next surge in petroleum.

tracy: i guess it is some comfort in knowing that it's not in the gas we put in our cars. tom, thanks. >> it turns out female economists favor a bigger role for the government. this -- tracy: i've got to believe that there's more and more women out there that are on the side of business as opposed to handing out checks. >> but the economists themselves still looking for government as sugar daddy or -- tracy: i don't know. you are not going to win. don't say it. in defense of fed's latest easing, big ben bernanke making his case in moments. rich edson is standing by live in indianapolis. >> and bacon prices sizzling higher but new doubts over whether there's actually going

to be a global shortage. first let's take a look at some of today's s&p winners and losers.

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so don't wait. with all the good years ahead, look for the experience and commitment to go the distance with you. call now to request your free decision guide. this easy-to-understand guide will answer some of your questions, and help you find the aarpmedin him the five. bernanke about to make the case for the latest round of easing. rich edson joined us now. >> a broad base defense of quantitative easing and a mainstream event. we, the federal reserve, want to do more to assist the recovery while keeping with price

stability. we will take care not to raise rates prematurely. we expected a high standard of considerable time after the economy strengthens. sometimes i hear the strength that the federal reserve is enabling that fiscal policy it by keeping interest rates very low. using it to influence the political debate on the budget would be highly inappropriate. fiscal policy is up to congress, but not to do so so abruptly. achieving these fiscal goals would be even more difficult if monetary policy were not helping to support the economic recovery. he also talks about charges of monetary. are you monetizing the debt? is it inevitably leading to higher inflation? he said, no, that is not what is happening and will not happen.

using the tool that is appropriate at this time to shrink the balance sheets. there are congressional proposals out there. he is opposed because it would politicize the fed. it would reduce public confidence. he also addresses the question is whether monetary policy is hurting savers, people who are putting money in banks and not getting much on return because interest rates are so low. we will get to the question and answer portion in just a little while here in indianapolis. back to you the five thank you very much. cheryl: stuff now as we do every 15 minutes.

sandra: microsoft is only valid component that has been in the red all day long. twenty-nine components have aeros. microsoft is down about a half percent. jeffrey and rbc old cutting microsoft today. jeffrey has a $34 target. also looking at yahoo!, in particular. yahoo! savior, the new ceo, marissa mayer, she came in to save yahoo!. we are looking here today because she has had her baby. her husband tweeted they had a beautiful baby boy. she will be back to work as soon

as possible. likely and wanted -- likely in wanted to weeks. nicole: -- cheryl: oklahoma, michigan and south carolina in the fight. the law empowers government at the expense of the states, taxpayers in the constitution. joining us now from columbia. thank you for taking the time to be with us. i think people need to understand exactly what you are talking about. that we are giving federal officials who are not elected the ability to basically liquidate companies.

>> absolutely. if you look at the constitution, you know, congress has the power to create uniform walls covering the subject matter of bankruptcy. the purpose of any law that congress passes should be to narrow the field of uncertainty. this expands the field. states like south carolina, michigan and oklahoma and many other states, we invest in the financial institutions. we invest tens of millions of dollars. when the institutions are liquidated, that could put state like south carolina and an untenable position. we could lose our creditable rights, the ability to contest our case before the court. cheryl: really, you know, and reading it, it is a little bizarre to me, actually, that you get treasury sec or

secretary to come in and take your company has to be liquidated and you only have 24 hours. where is the due process? >> well, again, that is why we are bringing a lawsuit on behalf of the states. it reduces the power of state. it basically makes us a subject to the whims of unelected bureaucrats. the economic policy, when you look at why they created dodd-frank was to avoid a 2008 financial crisis from ever happening again. at no point in 23 pages does it do anything to address the problems in fannie mae and freddie mac. i find it awfully interesting. cheryl: when dodd-frank first came out, and let small businesses complaining because of the under rules and regulations.

many are also other thing it has done some good. the consumer financial protection bureau, for one has brought some things to life for the little people. those who pre? >> well, listen, even a broken clock is right twice a day. with you look at it from a big picture, what it basically does is, it was just a little away community banks and it will go to to big to fail banks on wall street. every dollar that a local bank spends on a compliance officer or the lawyer is one dollar less they can make loans to small business people or people trying to buy their first home.

this full force and hurt small things if we do not stop it now. cheryl: many of the rules that will be implemented through dodd-frank will hurt small businesses. what are you hoping to do with oklahoma, michigan, get rid of the entire dodd-frank bill altogether or just pieces of it? >> well, the states are challenging dodd-frank specifically. that is vital to. they are private plaintiffs that are challenging title one and title ten. we obviously want those portions struck down because we believe those violate the constitution. there are parts of the law that i think are bad policy and will hurt our economy, but they are not unconstitutional. i will not challenge something just because i disagree with it. cheryl: this certainly has one. south carolina, attorney general, thank you for being with us and sharing your thoughts. i would have thought bond holders in the situation like

that-- dennis: the first monday in october today. the supreme court getting down to business. what obamacare could be back on the high courts agenda. cheryl: why they have bacon prices going higher. we will be right back. ♪ with the spark cash card from capital one,

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♪ >> i am robert gray with your fox business brief. american express has agreed to pay $130 million to resolve charges they broke consumer protection laws in the u.s. regulators say they deceived customers. some of the settlement will be used to refund customer money. the profit outlook is flying higher. the transportation raised its 2012 forecast thanks to strong passenger numbers. $4.1 billion in profit. a third higher than it previous estimate. the cloud -based human resources software plans to sell 22.8 million shares. that is the latest from the fox business network.

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[ male announcer ] get more access with the citi card. [ crowd cheering, mouse clicks ] ♪ cheryl: healthcare may still be back on the agenda. peter barnes is outside with wide. it is good news, isn't it? >> this was tough into in order today. liberties case a direct challenge to president obama's health care reform law. it does not mean this will be hurt again by the high court. liberty university was one of the first organizations to file a lawsuit against obamacare, but an appeals court shut down its suit under the anti-injunction act of 1867.

that was a lot after the civil war that said taxpayers cannot sue the government until they have suffered some kind of financial harm or injury. in this case, paying any of the taxes or penalties and obamacare. in june the supreme court upheld obamacare. it did not prohibit cases against obamacare celebrity has filed for a rehearing over the issues by the appeals court that originally shot it down. it will reply and whether 30 days. appeals court and if it happens there it can bubble up here. tracy: you will keep us on top of it. the court has taken up whether or not companies are liable, right? >> that is right.

this is a very important case involving human right cases in nigeria back in the 1990s. the shell oil company and basically the plaintiff here have sued in the united states. they were nigerians who sued in the united states and something called the billion tort statute allows them to do that. the alleged crimes happened in nigeria. they were with foreign companies did the question is whether or not they have jurisdiction to file for civil damages and receive payment for the crimes that happened in nigeria. the court is wrestling with it. a lot of companies could be liable for lots of things, other cases around the world. tracy: peter barnes. thank you very much.

it is quarter till the hour. time for stocks every 15 minutes. nicole: get out the bells and whistles. we are things that out of more than one percentage point. the s&p up nearly 1%. the words of the bunch is the nasdaq. take a look at macy's. we are getting ready for the holiday season. it is approaching. they will now higher 80,000 seasonal workers. sounds like a tremendous amount. this came on the heels of other names. kohls said 52,000. toys "r" us 45,000. they are just getting in there. quick look at the dow winners. they are all winners today. ibm hitting a new high. home depot hitting a new high.

just to name a few. back to you. dennis: thank you, nicole. we are blowing the lid off of the bacon shortage. it is now being called hogwash. there will be plenty of bacon. the drought costing farmers more to feed their piggies and that could make bacon prices go called wild. fears of a shortage of bacon, that is baloney. they say there will be more than enough to meet demand. i love puns. my next guest is looking to expand. joining me now for this week's small business big ideas is just an frostburg -- justin. thank you for joining us.

you started in 2003 with your first store. you now have 32 stores. you are franchising them. you are joining the local butcher. what are you trying to sell? >> the convenience meets community meets hospitality. it is those three things that we bring together. whether it is then dover, new hampshire for our next and new jersey. dennis: you go bid on local ingredients? >> absolutely. certainly depending upon the geographic region, those things are rather easy or a little bit more difficult. we have to go out of that region per se to bring in the best possible good that our customers demand. dennis: we had a fresh fishing

adventure. most fish is 30 days old. what are you doing, rush fish front? >> we are fortunate enough that we have a store where we are able to get it that day. we only you with day-old fish. dennis: your sales of all the stores combined over 55 million. your franchising and you want to start there and go out nationally. how do you control quality? >> certainly it is the people you surround yourself with. it starts with a capability and character of our business earners at the franchise level. surrounding yourself with the best people you can find. dennis: thank you very much, justin. i appreciate you being here. cheryl: great stuff. the biggest september movie

debut ever. sandra smith is live at the cme as markets soar. what is up, girl? sandra: we are watching live on the floor of the cme group where traders have witnessed equities. the big question is will that trend continue and where should you stash your cash the rest of the year? that is up next on "orchids now." ♪ ♪

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♪ tracy: commodities and bonds falling behind in september. can stocks keep the green arrows going? sandra smith had two days trades live at the pits of the cme. hi again. sandra: stocks were hot in september. they are hot again. stocks, bonds, u.s. dollars. if we are not in the stock market now or we are in it and a little bit, since they are outperforming anybody else, should they get in now? >> i think we are a little bit too high right now. the market looks pretty decent.

this morning we had a decent number, though we have had some bad numbers the previous couple. sandra: up for straight month, longest since 2007. a lot of this has been a merging market lead. >> you have seen a lot of liquidity in the market and that has been pushing it up. if we continue to see this and the market is confident that additional easing will work, then yes. sandra: oil down 6% this year. is there a reason to look otherwise? look at once that had been underperforming? >> that is the trick assignment right now. i am a little hesitant to do anything right now. the market a little unsettled with what is going on around the world. sandra: thank you so much. that is definitely something you

hear from a lot of traders down here on the floor and that is the election and huge uncertainties. there is a lot of "stay tuned." tracy: tough stuff, sandra smith. thank you very much. are the deep cuts being taken by european leaders digging them into a deeper hole? we will be back with ashley webster. dennis: melissa francis and -- ♪

dennis: the manufacturing index number came out. stocks out to the races. if they start to get in